Compared with 2021, the global trade flow in 2022 will not change much, and the trend will continue the characteristics of 2021. However, there are two points in 2022 that cannot be ignored. One is that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the first quarter has led to a surge in global energy prices and local turmoil in the geopolitical situation ; Second, US inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates several times during the year to ease inflation. In the fourth quarter, global inflation has not yet shown a significant cooling. Based on this background, the international trade flow of polypropylene has also changed to a certain extent. First, China’s export volume has increased compared to last year. One of the reasons is that China’s domestic supply continues to expand, which is higher than last year’s domestic supply. In addition, this year, there have been frequent restrictions on movement in some areas due to the epidemic, and under the pressure of economic inflation, the lack of consumer confidence in consumer consumption has suppressed demand. In the case of increased supply and weak demand, Chinese domestic suppliers turned to increase the export volume of domestic goods, and more suppliers joined the ranks of exports. However, as mentioned above, global inflationary pressures have increased sharply and demand has weakened. Overseas demand is still limited.
Imported resources have also been in an upside-down state for a long time this year. The import window has gradually opened in the second half of the year. Imported resources are subject to changes in overseas demand. In the first half of the year, demand in Southeast Asia and other places is strong and prices are better than those in Northeast Asia. Middle Eastern resources tend to flow into regions with high prices. In the second half of the year, as the cost of crude oil fell, suppliers with weak overseas demand began to lower their quotations for sales to China. However, in the second half of the year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar exceeded 7.2, and the pressure on import costs increased, and then gradually eased.
The highest point during the five-year period from 2018 to 2022 will appear from mid-February to the end of March 2021. At that time, the highest point of wire drawing in Southeast Asia was US$1448/ton, injection molding was US$1448/ton, and copolymerization was US$1483/ton; Far East drawing was US$1258/ton, injection molding was US$1258/ton, and copolymerization was US$1313/ton. The cold wave in the United States has caused a decline in the operating rate in North America, and the flow of foreign epidemics has been restricted. China has turned to the center of the “world factory”, and export orders have increased significantly. Until the middle of this year, overseas demand gradually weakened due to the impact of the global economic recession, and foreign companies began to underestimate due to sales pressure, and the price difference between internal and external markets was able to narrow.
In 2022, the global polypropylene trade flow will basically follow the general trend of low prices flowing into high price regions. China will still mainly export to Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, India and other countries. In the second quarter, exports were mainly to Africa and South America. Polypropylene exports radiated many varieties, including wire drawing, homopolymerization and copolymerization.The year-on-year decrease in sea freight this year is mainly due to the lack of consumption power in the expected strong market due to the global economic downturn this year. This year, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the geopolitical situation in Russia and Europe was tense. Europe’s imports from North America increased this year, and imports from Russia remained good in the first quarter. As the situation entered a stalemate and sanctions from various countries became clear, Europe’s imports from Russia also decreased. . The situation in South Korea is similar to that in China this year. A large amount of polypropylene is sold to Southeast Asia, occupying the market share in Southeast Asia to a certain extent.
Post time: Jan-06-2023