The average annual production scale in China has increased significantly from 2021 to 2023, reaching 2.68 million tons per year; It is expected that 5.84 million tons of production capacity will still be put into operation in 2024. If the new production capacity is implemented as scheduled, it is expected that the domestic PE production capacity will increase by 18.89% compared to 2023. With the increase of production capacity, domestic polyethylene production has shown a trend of increasing year by year. Due to the concentrated production in the region in 2023, new facilities such as Guangdong Petrochemical, Hainan Ethylene, and Ningxia Baofeng will be added this year. The production growth rate in 2023 is 10.12%, and it is expected to reach 29 million tons in 2024, with a production growth rate of 6.23%.
From the perspective of imports and exports, the increase in domestic supply, combined with the comprehensive impact of geopolitical patterns, regional supply and demand flows, and international freight rates, has led to a decreasing trend in the import of polyethylene resources in China. According to customs data, there is still a certain import gap in the Chinese polyethylene market from 2021 to 2023, with import dependence remaining between 33% and 39%. With the continuous increase in domestic resource supply, the increase in product supply outside the region, and the intensification of supply-demand contradictions within the region, export expectations continue to grow, which has attracted more and more attention from production enterprises. However, in recent years, due to the slow recovery of overseas economies, geopolitical and other uncontrollable factors, exports have also faced a lot of pressure. However, based on the current supply and demand situation of the domestic polyethylene industry, the future trend of export-oriented development is imperative.
The apparent consumption growth rate of China's polyethylene market from 2021 to 2023 ranges from -2.56% to 6.29%. In recent years, due to the slowing pace of global economic growth and the continued impact of international geopolitical tensions, international energy prices have remained high; On the other hand, high inflation and interest rate pressures have led to slow growth in major developed economies around the world, and the weak manufacturing situation worldwide is difficult to improve. As a plastic product exporting country, China's external demand orders have a significant impact. With the passage of time and the continuous strengthening of monetary policy adjustments by central banks around the world, the global inflation situation has eased, and signs of global economic recovery have begun to emerge. However, the slow growth rate is irreversible, and investors still hold a cautious attitude towards the future development trend of the economy, which has led to a slowdown in the apparent consumption growth rate of products. It is expected that the apparent consumption of polyethylene in China will be 40.92 million tons in 2024, with a month on month growth rate of 2.56%.
Post time: Aug-07-2024