At present, the consumption volume of polyethylene in my country is large, and the classification of downstream varieties is complicated and mainly sold directly to plastic product manufacturers. It belongs to the partial end product in the downstream industry chain of ethylene. Coupled with the impact of the regional concentration of domestic consumption, the regional supply and demand gap is not balanced.
With the concentrated expansion of production capacity of my country’s polyethylene upstream production enterprises in recent years, the supply side has increased significantly. At the same time, due to the continuous improvement of residents’ production and living standards, the demand for them has steadily increased in recent years. However, since the second half of 2021, the international situation has been treacherous and changeable. The spread of the epidemic and local wars have led to an imbalance in the international energy-financial order. collapse. The increasing uncertainties in the macro-economy have driven residents’ consumption sentiments into a cautious stage. Under the current situation, the risks and challenges faced by the development of polyethylene products are also more severe.
Population and economic development determine the distribution of PE consumption. From the perspective of downstream consumption regions, East China, South China, and North China are the main consumption areas for downstream consumption of polyethylene in my country, and will remain the top three in terms of consumption for a long time to come. However, with the continuous launch of new production equipment in the future, it is expected that the consumption gap in the three major consumption areas will be reduced to a certain extent. It is expected that this will significantly affect the future supply and demand pattern and product logistics flow in major regions. It is also worth mentioning that although the proportion of downstream demand in the western region is smaller than that of East China, South China, and North China, driven by domestic policies such as “One Belt, One Road” and “Western Development”, the downstream consumption of polyethylene in the western region will increase in the future. There is an increase expectation, especially for infrastructure demand products led by pipes, and the demand for injection molding and rotational molding products brought about by the continuous improvement of the quality of life is more obvious.
Then, in terms of downstream consumption varieties in the future, what kind of development expectations will the main downstream demand varieties of polyethylene have?
At present, the main downstream uses of polyethylene in my country include film, injection molding, pipe, hollow, wire drawing, cable, metallocene, coating and other main varieties.
The first to bear the brunt, the largest proportion of downstream consumption is film. For the film product industry, the mainstream is agricultural film, industrial film and product packaging film. However, in recent years, factors such as restrictions on plastic bags and the repeated weakening of demand due to the epidemic have repeatedly troubled them, and they are facing an embarrassing situation. The demand for traditional disposable plastic film products will be gradually replaced with the popularity of degradable plastics. Many film manufacturers are also facing industrial technological innovations, and are gradually developing towards recyclable industrial films with stronger quality and performance. However, due to the degradability of degradable plastic films, there are strong requirements for outer packaging, or the demand for outer packaging films that need to be stored for a long time beyond the degradation period, and industrial films and other fields are still irreplaceable, so film products will still be used. It has existed as the main product downstream of polyethylene for a long time, but there may be a slowdown in consumption growth and a decline in the proportion.
In addition, industries such as injection molding, pipes, and hollows that are closely related to production and life will still be the main consumer products downstream of polyethylene in the next few years, and will still be dominated by infrastructure, daily necessities, and civil tools and equipment. People’s livelihood is linked to durable goods, and the demand for product degradation is reduced. At present, the main problem facing the above industries is that the growth rate of the real estate sector has stagnated in recent years. Due to factors such as negative feedback on residents’ consumption sentiment brought about by repeated epidemics, the development of the product industry is facing certain growth resistance. Therefore, the change in short-term proportion is relatively limited, and it is less affected by degradation products. The pipe industry is more likely to be affected by policies, while injection molding and hollow products are more affected by residents’ consumption sentiment, and the growth rate will slow down in the future. possibility.
With the continuous development of science and technology, the individualization and humanization innovation of plastic products, as well as product quality innovation and customized production requirements are also constantly developing. Therefore, in the future, the plastic products industry will increase the demand for some raw materials that improve the performance of plastic products, such as metallocenes, rolling plastics, coating materials and other high value-added products or products with unique requirements in special fields. In addition, due to the concentrated production of upstream polyethylene production enterprises in recent years, resulting in serious product inversion, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine during the year caused high oil prices to push up downstream profits of ethylene, and the surge in cost and supply resulted in serious product homogeneity. Under the current situation, polyethylene Manufacturers are becoming more active in the production of high value-added products such as metallocenes, rotational molding, and coatings, in line with the development of downstream industries. Therefore, the growth rate of products may increase to a certain extent in the future.
In addition, as the epidemic continues repeatedly, as well as the research and development of new brands by manufacturers, polyethylene fibers, medical and protective product special materials are also gradually followed up and developed, and future demand will also increase steadily.
Post time: Dec-06-2022