• head_banner_01

Global supply and demand growth is weak, and the risk of PVC export trade is increasingGlobal supply and demand growth is weak, and the risk of PVC export trade is increasing

With the growth of global trade frictions and barriers, PVC products are facing the restrictions of anti-dumping, tariff and policy standards in foreign markets, and the impact of fluctuations in shipping costs caused by geographical conflicts.

Domestic PVC supply to maintain growth, demand affected by the housing market weak slowdown, PVC domestic self-supply rate reached 109%, foreign trade exports become the main way to digest domestic supply pressure, and the global regional supply and demand imbalance, there are better opportunities for exports, but with the increase in trade barriers, the market is facing challenges.

Statistics show that from 2018 to 2023, domestic PVC production maintained a steady growth trend, increasing from 19.02 million tons in 2018 to 22.83 million tons in 2023, but domestic market consumption failed to increase simultaneously, consumption from 2018 to 2020 is a growth period, but it began to decline to 2023 in 2021. The tight balance between supply and demand in domestic supply and demand turns into an oversupply.

From the domestic self-sufficiency rate, it can also be seen that the domestic self-sufficiency rate remains at about 98-99% before 2020, but the self-sufficiency rate rises to more than 106% after 2021, and PVC faces supply pressure greater than domestic demand.

The domestic oversupply of PVC has rapidly turned from negative to positive from 2021, and the scale is more than 1.35 million tons, from the point of view of export market dependence, after 2021 from 2-3 percentage points to 8-11 percentage points.

As the data show, domestic PVC is facing a contradictory situation of slowing supply and slowing demand, promoting the growth trend of foreign export markets.

From the point of view of export countries and regions, China's PVC is mainly exported to India, Southeast Asia, Central Asia and other countries and regions. Among them, India is China's largest export destination, followed by Vietnam, Uzbekistan and other demand is also increasing rapidly, its downstream is mainly used for pipe, film and wire and cable industries. In addition, PVC imported from Japan, South America and other regions is mainly used in construction, automotive and other industries.

From the perspective of export commodity structure, China's PVC exports are mainly based on primary products, such as PVC particles, PVC powder, PVC paste resin, etc., accounting for more than 60% of the total exports. Followed by various synthetic products of PVC primary products, such as PVC flooring materials, PVC pipes, PVC plates, PVC films, etc., accounting for about 40% of the total exports.

With the growth of global trade frictions and barriers, PVC products are facing the restrictions of anti-dumping, tariff and policy standards in foreign markets, and the impact of fluctuations in shipping costs caused by geographical conflicts. At the beginning of 2024, India proposed anti-dumping investigations on imported PVC, according to the current preliminary understanding of the official has not yet concluded, according to the relevant rules of anti-dumping duty policy is expected to land in 2025 1-3 quarters, there are rumors ahead of the implementation of December 2024, has not yet confirmed, no matter when the landing or tax rate is high or low, Will have an adverse impact on China's PVC exports.

And foreign investors worry about the implementation of Indian anti-dumping duties, resulting in a reduction in demand for Chinese PVC in the Indian market, near the landing period before more circumvent or reduce procurement, thus affecting the overall export ‌. The BIS certification policy was extended in August, and from the current situation and certification progress, it is not ruled out that the implementation of the extension will continue at the end of December. If India's BIS certification policy is not extended, it will have a direct negative impact on China's PVC exports. This requires Chinese exporters to meet India's BIS certification standards, otherwise they will not be able to enter the Indian market. Since most of the domestic PVC exports are quoted by FOB (FOB) method, the rise in shipping costs has increased the cost of China's PVC exports, making the price advantage of China's PVC in the international market weakened.

The volume of sample export orders declined, and export orders will remain weak, which further restricts the export volume of PVC in China ‌. In addition, the United States has the possibility of imposing tariffs on China's exports, which is expected to weaken the demand for PVC-related products such as paving materials, profiles, sheets, toys, furniture, home appliances and other fields, and the specific impact is yet to be implemented. Therefore, in order to cope with the risks, it is recommended that domestic exporters establish ‌ diversified market, reduce the dependence on the single market, and explore more international markets; ‌ Improve product quality

03

Post time: Nov-04-2024