In September 2023, driven by favorable macroeconomic policies, good expectations for the “Nine Silver Ten” period, and continuous rise in futures, the PVC market price has significantly increased. As of September 5th, the domestic PVC market price has further increased, with the mainstream reference of calcium carbide 5-type material being around 6330-6620 yuan/ton, and the mainstream reference of ethylene material being 6570-6850 yuan/ton. It is understood that as PVC prices continue to soar, market transactions are hindered, and traders’ shipping prices are relatively chaotic. Some traders have seen a bottom in their early supply sales, and are not very interested in high price restocking. Downstream demand is expected to steadily increase, but currently downstream product companies are resistant to high PVC prices and adopt a wait-and-see attitude, mainly maintaining low load consumption of PVC inventory in the early stage. In addition, from the current supply and demand situation, the situation of oversupply in the short term will continue due to large production capacity, high inventory, and unexpected demand increase. Therefore, it can be said that it is normal for PVC prices to rise under the boost of national policies, but there will be some moisture in cases of large increases.
In the future, there will be a slight improvement in the supply and demand fundamentals, but it is not enough to support the rise of PVC prices. PVC prices are mostly influenced by futures and macroeconomic policies, and the PVC market will maintain a stable and upward trend. For the suggestions for operating in the current PVC market, we should maintain a cautious attitude of seeing more and doing less, selling high and buying low, and being cautious in light positions.
Post time: Sep-07-2023