In March, upstream petrochemical inventories continued to decrease, while coal enterprise inventories slightly accumulated at the beginning and end of the month, showing a mainly fluctuating decline overall. The upstream petrochemical inventory operated in the range of 335000 to 390000 tons within the month. In the first half of the month, the market lacked effective positive support, resulting in a stalemate in trading and a heavy wait-and-see situation for merchants. Downstream terminal factories were able to purchase and use according to order demand, while coal companies had a slight accumulation of inventory. The depletion of inventory for two types of oil was slow. In the second half of the month, influenced by the international situation, international crude oil prices have remained strong, with increased support from the cost side and continuous rise in plastic futures, boosting the market atmosphere. And downstream construction continues to recover as a whole, demand continues to improve, and the elimination of upstream petrochemical PE inventory and coal enterprise inventory is accelerating. As of March 29th, the upstream petrochemical PE inventory was 335000 tons, a decrease of 55000 tons from the beginning of the month. However, the upstream petrochemical PE inventory is still 35000 tons higher than the same period last year.
In March, domestic upstream petrochemical and coal enterprises in PE showed good performance in inventory reduction, but faced slightly greater pressure in the intermediate stage of inventory reduction. With the continuous growth of domestic PE production capacity in recent years, the industry's terminal demand is weak, and the supply-demand contradiction is constantly emerging, putting greater pressure on inventory in intermediate links. Due to the intensification of supply contradictions in the industry, the operating mentality of intermediaries in the market has become more cautious. In addition, during the Spring Festival holiday in February this year, intermediaries have reduced their inventory in advance and maintained a low inventory operating mentality. Overall, inventory in the intermediate links is lower than the seasonal level of the same period.
Entering April, the domestic PE multi package storage and maintenance plan may lead to a decrease in PE supply expectations, an increase in maintenance losses, and a relief of inventory pressure in the market's middle and upstream. In addition, there is still an expectation of an increase in demand for downstream industries such as packaging film, pipes, and hollow materials, but the demand for agricultural film industry will gradually come to an end, and the industry's production may weaken. The demand for production in the downstream PE industry is still relatively strong, supporting a positive outlook for the market overall.
Post time: Apr-07-2024