Last week, PVC rose again after a short period of decline, closing at 6,559 yuan/ton on Friday, a weekly increase of 5.57%, and the short-term price remained low and volatile. In the news, the external Fed’s interest rate hike stance is still relatively hawkish, but the relevant domestic departments have recently introduced a number of policies to bail out real estate, and the promotion of delivery guarantees has improved expectations for real estate completion. At the same time, the domestic hot and off-season is coming to an end, boosting market sentiment.
At present, there is a deviation between the macro-level and fundamental trading logic. The Fed’s inflation crisis has not been lifted. A series of important U.S. economic data released earlier were generally better than expected. Currency contraction and interest rate hike expectations did not change much. Macroeconomic pressure did not change, while fundamental support provided marginal improvement. feature.This week, PVC production increased slightly. As the high temperature eases, there is currently no obvious negative impact on the supply side, and the supply is expected to return to growth. Due to the repeated interruption of the process of consumption recovery in many regions and the weakening of external demand under the pressure of recession, the current consumption has not The performance exceeded expectations, so that the recovery of production may be greater than the effect of the small increase in demand. Although the traditional peak season is gradually entering, the downstream construction is slowly increasing, but the short-term improvement is not enough to bring about sufficient inventory optimization, high inventory status Lower price elasticity is less likely to continue rising. However, the current price is still in the pattern of low valuation and profit, which provides a sufficient margin of safety for the disk. With the improvement of domestic weather conditions, the terminal demand has shown a trend of improving month-on-month, which also brings certain support to the market, and the market outlook ” The peak season of “Golden Nine Silver Ten” is still driven by demand growth, which makes the disk appear relatively defensive.
In general, the phased improvement in demand entering the peak season has increased the strength of fundamental support and pushed the market price focus upward, but the intensity of demand has not yet covered the increase in the supply side, and the constraints of high inventory still exist. The interest rate meeting is approaching, the macroeconomic aspect will not change the pressure pattern, and further improvement in the demand side is needed to provide a driving force for the rebound.
Post time: Sep-15-2022