In August, it is expected that China's PE supply (domestic+imported+recycled) will reach 3.83 million tons, a month on month increase of 1.98%. Domestically, there has been a decrease in domestic maintenance equipment, with a 6.38% increase in domestic production compared to the previous period. In terms of varieties, the resumption of LDPE production in Qilu in August, the restart of Zhongtian/Shenhua Xinjiang parking facilities, and the conversion of Xinjiang Tianli High tech's 200000 tons/year EVA plant to LDPE have significantly increased LDPE supply, with a month on month increase of 2 percentage points in production and supply; The HD-LL price difference remains negative, and the enthusiasm for LLDPE production is still high. The proportion of LLDPE production remained unchanged compared to July, while the proportion of HDPE production decreased by 2 percentage points compared to July.
In terms of imports, in August, based on the international market supply and demand environment and the situation in the Middle East, it is expected that the PE import volume will decline compared to the previous month, and the overall level may be slightly higher than the mid year level. September and October are the traditional peak demand season, and it is expected that PE import resources will maintain a slightly higher level, with a monthly import volume of 1.12-1.15 million tons. On a year-on-year basis, the expected domestic PE imports from August to October are slightly lower than the same period last year, with a more significant decrease in high voltage and linear decline.
In terms of recycled PE supply, the price difference between new and old materials remains high, and downstream demand slightly increased in August. It is expected that the supply of recycled PE will increase month on month; September and October are the peak demand season, and the supply of recycled PE may continue to increase. On a year-on-year basis, the expected comprehensive supply of recycled PE is higher than the same period last year.
In terms of plastic product production in China, the plastic product production in July was 6.319 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. The cumulative production of plastic products in China from January to July was 42.12 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%.
In August, the comprehensive supply of PE is expected to increase, but downstream demand performance is currently average, and PE inventory turnover is under pressure. It is expected that the ending inventory will be between neutral and pessimistic expectations. From September to October, both supply and demand of PE increased, and it is expected that the ending inventory of polyethylene will be neutral.
Post time: Aug-26-2024