New Year's new atmosphere, new beginning, and also new hope. 2024 is a crucial year for the implementation of the 14th Five Year Plan. With further economic and consumer recovery and more explicit policy support, various industries are expected to see an improvement, and the PVC market is no exception, with stable and positive expectations. However, due to difficulties in the short term and the approaching Lunar New Year, there were no significant fluctuations in the PVC market at the beginning of 2024.
As of January 3, 2024, the PVC futures market prices have rebounded weakly, and the PVC spot market prices have mainly adjusted narrowly. The mainstream reference for calcium carbide 5-type materials is around 5550-5740 yuan/ton, and the mainstream reference for ethylene materials is 5800-6050 yuan/ton. The atmosphere in the PVC market remains calm, with poor shipment performance from traders and flexible adjustment of transaction prices. In terms of PVC production enterprises, overall production has slightly increased, supply pressure remains unchanged, calcium carbide prices are relatively high, PVC cost support is strong, and calcium carbide method enterprises have more profit losses. Under cost pressure, calcium carbide method PVC production enterprises have little intention of continuing to lower prices. In terms of downstream demand, the overall downstream demand is sluggish, but there are slight differences in performance in different regions. For example, downstream product enterprises in the south are operating better than those in the north, and some downstream enterprises have a demand for orders before the new year. Overall, the overall production is still relatively low, with a strong wait-and-see attitude.
In the future, the PVC market price will not undergo significant changes before the Spring Festival holiday and is likely to remain volatile. However, with the support of futures rebounds and other factors, PVC prices may rise before the Spring Festival holiday. However, there is still no momentum to support the trend of upward supply and demand fundamentals, and there is limited room for upward movement at that time, so caution should be taken. On the other hand, against the backdrop of clear national policies and further economic and demand recovery in the later stage, the editor maintains a stable and optimistic attitude towards the future market. In terms of operation, it is recommended to maintain the previous strategy, purchase goods at a small amount of low prices, and ship at a profit, with caution as the main approach.
Post time: Jan-08-2024