On Monday, real estate data continued to be sluggish, which had a strong negative impact on demand expectations. As of the close, the main PVC contract fell by more than 2%. Last week, the US CPI data in July was lower than expected, which increased investors’ risk appetite. At the same time, the demand for gold, nine silver and ten peak seasons was expected to improve, which provided support for prices. However, the market has doubts about the recovery stability of the demand side. The increase brought by the recovery of domestic demand in the medium and long term may not be able to offset the increase brought by the recovery of supply and the decrease in demand brought by external demand under the pressure of recession. Later, it may lead to a rebound in commodity prices, and with inflation expectations rising again, it is unlikely that the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations will fall further, which also puts pressure on disk prices.
Fundamentally, the marginal expectations of the PVC market have turned loose, but there are not many bright spots worth mentioning in the short term. This week, the PVC construction started to decline slightly, and the maintenance peak has passed. In the early stage, due to seasonal maintenance reasons, the parking devices have resumed production one after another, and the supply side is expected to recover. However, the enterprise’s calcium carbide method single product profit loss, the start of construction is suppressed, and the demand side is more. Reflected in the market’s expectations, due to the recent impact of the domestic off-season and the suppression of the epidemic and the weakening of external demand under the pressure of recession, downstream operations are more cautious, maintaining the rhythm of just-needed replenishment, resulting in a rebound in domestic social inventory, which is a drag on prices. , Although the price of the disk has fallen below the cost of the external mining calcium carbide V enterprise, the fundamentals of gradually loosening the margin are difficult to promote the continuous rebound of the disk, but thanks to the marginal cost supporting the price below, the short-term downside is also limited.
In general, the bullish factors that pushed prices to continue to rebound in the early stage have weakened at the current position. After the recent round of price rebounds, the downturn in real estate data has put a lot of pressure on prices. As the short-term domestic gold, nine, silver, and ten consumption peak season is approaching, there is an expectation of improvement in demand. The change in demand in the short term will become the focus of the recent price transition. Pay attention to the improvement of demand. It is expected that the short-term price will continue to fluctuate.
Post time: Aug-17-2022