PVC closed down slightly on Monday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warned against prematurely loosening policy, the market is expected to raise interest rates again, and production is expected to gradually resume as the hot weather is lifted.
Recently, under the influence of the epidemic situation and power shortage in some areas, the production of PVC plants has been stopped and reduced. On August 29, the Sichuan Energy Emergency Office lowered the emergency response to energy supply guarantee for emergencies. Previously, the National Meteorological Administration also expected that the temperature in some high-temperature areas in the south would gradually drop from the 24th to the 26th. Some of the production cuts brought about may be unsustainable, and the high temperature power cut is not conducive to the demand side. In addition, some areas continue to be affected by the epidemic, and downstream demand has not improved. Although domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal peak season, the drag on the demand side is gradually slowing down, but the short-term improvement is not enough to bring about sufficient inventory optimization, and in the medium and long term, the demand increase due to the recovery of domestic demand is difficult to offset the supply side recovery. Incremental and external demand decreases under the pressure of recession, and the valuation of PVC continues to rise and still faces potential pressure.
In general, due to the recent increase in supply disturbances, the previous situation of gradual easing of market supply and demand expectations will be temporarily broken, which will form a certain support for the disk price. At the same time, due to the fact that the comprehensive profit of external PVC mining enterprises maintains losses and superimposes the conversion of off-peak seasons, the disk surface presents a state of resistance to decline. In the later stage, if domestic demand recovers significantly, it will be conducive to the low-level rebound of disk prices, but if the recovery of demand is not as strong as the increase in supply, it will still face the pressure of accumulating stocks. Therefore, under the current game cycle of short, long and short, it is more likely to continue the trend of oscillating movement in the low range in the short term, and changes in demand are the focus of recent price changes.
Post time: Sep-02-2022