According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, in US dollars, as of September 2023, China's total import and export value was 520.55 billion US dollars, an increase of -6.2% (from -8.2%). Among them, exports reached 299.13 billion US dollars, an increase of -6.2% (the previous value was -8.8%); Imports reached 221.42 billion US dollars, an increase of -6.2% (from -7.3%); The trade surplus is 77.71 billion US dollars. From the perspective of polyolefin products, the import of plastic raw materials has shown a trend of volume contraction and price decline, and the export amount of plastic products has continued to narrow despite a year-on-year decrease. Despite the gradual recovery of domestic demand, external demand remains weak, but the weakness has eased somewhat. At present, since the price of polyolefin market has fallen in mid September, it has entered a mainly volatile trend. The choice of future direction still depends on the recovery of domestic and foreign demand.
In September 2023, the import of primary form plastic raw materials reached 2.66 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year; The import amount was 27.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%. From January to September, the import of primary form plastic raw materials reached 21.811 million tons, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year; The import amount was 235.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%. From the perspective of cost support, international crude oil prices have continued to fluctuate and rise. At the end of September, the main contract of US oil reached a high of 95.03 US dollars per barrel, setting a new high since mid November 2022. The prices of chemical products based on crude oil have followed the rise, and the arbitrage window for polyolefin imports has mostly closed. Recently, it seems that the arbitrage window for multiple varieties of polyethylene has opened, while polypropylene is still closed, which is clearly not conducive to the polyethylene market.
From the perspective of the monthly average price of imported primary form plastic raw materials, the price began to fluctuate and rise continuously after hitting the bottom in June 2020, and began to decline after reaching a new high in June 2022. After that, it maintained a continuous downward trend. As shown in the figure, since the rebound stage in April 2023, the monthly average price has continuously decreased, and the cumulative average price from January to September has also decreased.
Post time: Nov-03-2023